If it ain’t over until the fat lady sings, this Washington Post article may be an indication that she’s getting the pipes loosened up. Generally an article like this would have quotes from some mid-to-low-level GOP congressman (someone from the at-large seat in North Dakota, for instance) bemoaning the downfall of the GOP while all the top brass cheerily whistles past the graveyard.
Not this time…
“If you are a Democrat, you have to like the atmosphere,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (Va.).
“It is unquestionably closer than we would like,” said Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.).
These two guys aren’t lightweights. Granted the article pulled two quotes that may well not be representative of their larger comments. Either or both of these guys could have said, “We’re going to hang on,” but the reporters left it out because it doesn’t fit with the storyline.
I suspect, however, that the quotes above are actually about the most positive things they could say about the current environment. With two new polls out (USA Today/Gallup and ABC News/WaPo) showing the GOP getting its ass handed to it.
Most polling shows a drop in support among conservatives and independents, but I’d really like to see the conservative universe broken down by fiscals and socials. I don’t think we’re going to lose a lot of social conservatives because they don’t, strictly speaking, have a lot of hope getting the Democrats to pass socially conservative legislation.
Fiscal conservatives, however, now appear to have equally dismal options for getting fiscally conservative policies out of either party. I suspect that’s where we’re bleeding support, but the timing of the Foley things gives us a convenient out to blame the social wing.
I would say my political affiliation to the party is on the fiscal side of the house…and that too has been discarded by the current leadership (WH and Congress). I tend to agree with your analysis regarding the loss of fiscal conservatives.
To take it a little bit further, the last time they were in power, the Dems did not drive us into a similar fiscal mess. While the GOP labels them as free spenders, the Dem’s recent track record is far better than the GOP’s. While alot of us are not even close to the party on social issues, we clung to the fiscal prudence wing and held our noses. Not any more. Fiscal sanity is long gone for the GOP. With that gone, there is little reason to support them. Foreign Policy? Nope. All three of the “Axis of Evil” countries are more of a problem now than they were when he made the speech. Social Issues? Nope. Self-explanatory if you think the government should not give a damn about your personal life. Fiscal issues? Nope…not when you think an annual deficit of $295B (that’s billion) is good news!
As I posted before, the GOP needs a good ass-kicking to clean up the mess. But we all know it won’t clean it up…it will swing it more to the right. So, we will have more flag burning and gay marriage amendments. We will have more accusations of the Dems supporting terrorists. I think you said as much yourself in an earlier post. So, that means folks like me will vote Dem, but never feel at home. But, we have no home anymore with the GOP. Who would have thought the Dems would be the fiscally responsible party…I sure didn’t.
That is exactly my fear. If the fiscal conservatives walk, and the social conservatives are the ones that turn out, the media will still portray it as “the base” not showing up because they don’t draw a distinction and their polling inadequately captures the line. It will end up like the 2004 “value voters” all over again.
The solution for all of it will be more overtures to the religious right at the expense of the fiscal discipline crowd.
So that begs the question, why do people like you stay? Put another way, why should any of the fiscal conservatives vote with the GOP? Are there more fiscal conservatives out there to push real reform in the party or is it too far gone to the social-right to come back to the center?
I stay because I am an eternal optimist.
As the Democrats make more inroads in the west (where fiscal conservatism and libertarianism are as prevalent as social conservatism is in the South) one of two things will happen.
Either the Democrats will find there is more to be gained by fiscal restraint and will rein in the liberal-spenders to attract and keep the new-found fiscal converts, or the Republicans will be forced to reconnect with the Goldwater wing of the party and right (no pun intended) the ship.