Since When Is A Win A Tie?

Jan 08 2008 Published by under Candidates, Craziness, Elections, John McCain, News Media, Politics

Perhaps my perspective is a tad influenced by the fact that I have been helping Thompson’s campaign, but I can’t get over how incredibly ridiculous the coverage of the Iowa caucus was, and continues to be. It illustrates beautifully the problem Fred has had getting a fair shake from the media.

Here are the results from Iowa courtesy of the less than conservative New York Times

Fred D. Thompson 15,904 13.4%
John McCain 15,559 13.1%

If I remember my Electoral Politics 101, if you win by one vote, you still win. That’s just the way it is. If a guy has 50,050 votes and another has 49,950, and you round the math, they both have 50%. However, absent a recount, I guarantee you the guy with 50,050 is going to be sworn into office.

So I find it incredible that the mainstream media continues to report that Fred “tied for third” with John McCain. It’s just irresponsible.

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Envisioning A New Political Campaign Apparatus

I was having a conversation with a fellow campaign junkie this morning about the troubles the GOP is having. Not having online, mind you, but just having in general. There has been a lot of ink spilled discussing the GOP’s money troubles that tends to focus on our online numbers, but the fact is our fundraising haul is low on the Net as well as in the mail.

We’re also having trouble selling our message. Much has also been said about the fact that we’re trying to move a bad message in a difficult environment. We’re trying to talk about our commitment to fiscal responsibility after spending 7 years giving away the store. We’re trying to talk about our commitment to values wile defending Members of Congress who stand accused of all manner of crimes.

I get it. It’s a tough sell.

It is not made easier by the apparatus. There is an inherent flaw in the way we structure and run our campaigns. I’ve been thinking about this for a while now, and have come to the conclusion that we need a fundamentally different paradigm for building and managing our campaigns.

Run It Like A Business

I once heard a joke that we need a president that will run the government like a business – someone who will burn it down and collect the insurance.

Seriously, though, there is nothing wrong with applying the lessons of business to the business of politics. There is much we can learn from the business community and we need to apply some of the basics to our campaigns. Following are five simple changes we could make that I believe would yield great gains.

  1. Break The Stool – Typically the three legs of the political campaign stool are Communications, Finance, and Political – message, money and mobilization. Increasingly, there is a fourth leg called “Strategy” that deals with polling and paid media. The problem for most campaigns is there is considerable overlap in some of these things, and there can be considerable friction – especially given the emergence of an entirely new and different form of media – one much more interactive than mail, phones, and the TV.

    The campaigns structure itself is a hindrance to the campaign process, yet nobody tinkers with it because, “That’s how it has always been done.”In a business environment, clinging to outmoded models can be the last nail in your coffin. Campaigns should not cling to an outdated org chart simply because it’s been in use for decades.

  2. Divorce media relations from marketing – Most companies treat marketing and media relations as two separate functions. Talking to the media and talking to your customers are two different animals. Campaigns, however, generally take as gospel the direction of the Communications Director.
  3. The fact is, what moves the head of the political bureau at the New York Times is probably not going to move many voters. Conversely, the type of content that makes compelling direct mail, or internet video, or television advertising, is often going to be mocked by the political media elite.By separating those two functions completely (I say completely because often the paid media are not directly managed by Comms) you’ll end up with better material.

  4. Marketing 101 – Now that you have Communications talking exclusively to the press (which is what they do best), you’re free to market your product. Have you ever noticed that most of the really good commercials you remember weren’t stodgy and boring? It doesn’t matter what the product is, if the ad is uninspired, nobody will remember the product.
  5. Here’s an example. A few years ago, a major car manufacturer made an ad that featured a ball bearing rolling along the window channels and the body lines of their car. Here’s the challenge for you: Name the car! Can’t do it? Name the company! Can’t do that either, can you?

    The fact is, people like to make boring commercials in the misguided belief that they’re reinforcing some image attribute of “serious” or “professional” or “trustworthy”. It’s all BS. Those attributes, applied to marketing, are the equivalent of “boring”, “stiff”, and “uninteresting”.

    You have 30-60 seconds to convey something. Do you really want to follow the Al Gore model and make the one word that people use to describe your candidate be “wooden”. Do you want people to think you’re boring simply because you have some hyper-inflated respect for the office your guy is seeking?

    In 2004, the most memorable TV ad that ran in the Presidential contest was also the goofiest. It had a serious message, but it presented it in a fun and engaging way. It was memorable and compelling. There’s nothing wrong with using odd to sell a serious idea.

    One of my favorite ongoing ad campaigns was the Burger King chicken sandwiches. Whether it was the Subservient Chicken or the punk band Coq Roq, BK got noticed for their advertising. They pulled the ads after some outcry that “Coq Roq” was offensive, but the subsequent attention paid to them pulling the ads was worth a ton of free publicity – it was probably worth more than the buy would have been.

    There is nothing wrong with getting people’s attention. If you are a political party, do whatever you can to frame yourself. stick to the message, but don’t be afraid to present it in a unique wrapper. If you’re a campaign, the line is a little trickier to walk, but you can have fun, and make people remember you at the same time.

    A friend showed me a direct mail piece she received from a candidate and held onto as an example of exactly this point. The candidate’s tagline on his mail said simply, “Short. Bald. Honest.” It was perhaps the greatest tagline ever on political mail. People will remember it, and they’ll have positive thoughts about the candidate – forgiving almost all but the most extreme positions.

    Your paid media, the Internet, and direct mail should all be run like a marketing department. Everything should stand out.

    The takeaway from all of this is try something new. Be brave. Get noticed.

  6. The Relationship Between Sales and Marketing – I took the direct mail function out of Political because ideally, the political guys should be all about talking to the voters. I don’t consider direct mail to be a form of talking to voters. It’s a way of priming the pump for your political guys to make the call, or knock on the door and deliver that sale. If your paid media (including the net) are your marketing efforts, then your political guys are your sales team. Strategy and Political should overlap at the database. Think of this as your Customer Relationship Management (CRM) package. Strategy fills it with leads through their marketing efforts, but it’s up to Political to interact with the customer.
  7. That’s also true online. I’d like to see a candidate set up their “sign up” form with questions about interests that actually told you what the subscriber wanted. Options to “Get news and information” would be separate with “Help contact voters by mail or phone”. The people that chose the latter should get a personal call from the organizer at the local level to involve them in volunteering. The people that chose the first are clearly more interested in simply staying in touch. Campaigns get too specific with the asks on sign up forms and end up missing the bigger picture (there are people who don’t want to do other activities, and will view repeated requests to do so as a pain).

    So now that you have a separate sales force, they are all about closing the deal. They can do that through channel partners (coalitions), but their goal should be to talk to every single voter. We tend to talk about microtargeting and the ability to move voters with carefully crafted messages that appeal to my interests. To some extent, that probably works. I have bought a number of cars in my life and did so very recently. The ads made me lean to a particular car, and I went to look at them, but ultimately chose a different model because it better suited my needs, and the salesman demonstrated that.

    We can run all the ads that we want touting a candidate’s position, but the fact is, somebody in person is going to close the deal. It won’t be the ad that makes the sale, it will be a friend or a family member. It might be a neighbor going door to door that convinces them to buy. You better hope that your CRM system can tell you where those leads are, but you better pray it’s your salesman – and not the other guy’s – that convinces them to buy.

  8. Investor Relations and Effective Management - Campaigns cost a lot. Donors, for lack of a better explanation, are your shareholders. The return on their investment is you winning. They want to know that you used their dough to build the best business you can. If you’re still working from a model that puts all of your message in the hands of the press guys; treats your internet shop as a place to put press releases; puts your sales guys in charge of lead generation; makes marketing a minor player relegated only to radio and TV ads; and spends money on a campaign with less than effective coordination, you are doing a disservice to your shareholders.

Campaigns really need to think about the way they manage operations and really ask themselves if the way it was done 40 years ago is really the way it should be done today. In business, the answer to that question is a resounding no. If your business remained unchanged for 40 years while others around you experimented with other approaches, there is a pretty good probability that you would end up with a declining share of the market. That’s exactly what’s happening to the GOP today.

The Democrats have been adapting their model. Rather than using the same direct mail copy that they used in the 1970s, they have discovered a desire for people to connect. They realized that their stakeholders want to believe in the cause. They made their message one of inclusion.

If you look at GOP direct mail, it’s all exactly the same. “Candidate X is a dirty liberal extremist and the liberal elite extremists (possibly in San Francisco, maybe in New York, certainly in DC) want him to win. Fight the liberals and give us your money.” It says nothing other than liberal.

Look at recent Democrat messages, however, and you see a company that it selling itself to the people. It will generally say:

We don’t believe in the direction the Republicans are going, we want to go in a different direction, to do that we need to win elections. To win elections, we need to hire field organizers, and print yard signs, and buy billboards, and run TV ads. Your contributions will put Joe Blow on the ground in (insert state) and he’ll be able to contact 285 voters per day between now and the election. If you give us 2X contributions, we’ll also be able to put four volunteers in the field next to Joe and give them coffee and donuts to keep them happy.

When I first started seeing these messages a couple of years ago, I thought they were ridiculous. I believed it was way too much inside baseball and would be ignored by people.

I was wrong.

Telling people where their money is going and how it will be used (even if it’s nonsense) is a sales tactic. They found their sales methods were flawed and tried something new. It worked. This should be seen as a lesson. We, too, need to adapt if we’re going to survive. We need to change our fundamentals – our approach to running our business.

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What’s Your Business?

Feb 20 2007 Published by under Business, News Media, Technology, The Economy, The Internet

Mike over at TechDirt has a great little post on the newspaper industry and the efforts by a Norwegian newspaper to come to terms with itself in a digital age.

A lot of ink has been spilled covering the state of American newspapers and the constant wailing about the Internet. Some, like the New York Times, have implemented a limited subscription service. The model is sort of like a date that will let you get to third base, but won’t go all the way. They’ll give you enough content to get you interested and make you want to put a ring on their finger by paying for the rest.

The Wall Street Journal has gone a different route. They’re taking the approach that they’ll give you a little bit of editorial content (via OpinionJournal.com), but keep the news for subscribers only. Think of this as the date that gives you a kiss on the cheek and spends the rest of the night telling you what she thinks about people you don’t really care about.

Others, like the Washington Post, have embraced a philosophy of giving you the milk, the cow, and the barn for free. They’re using their proximity to the world of politics – through which all other industries flow – to build an audience for their content, and the world is coming to them. It’s a good model, but one unlikely to work for a newspaper in middle America.

TechDirt hits the nail on the head when he points out the problem newspapers have. They tend to think of themselves as newspapers.

This goes back to the simple fact that newspapers got too focused on thinking they were in the newspaper business, rather than in the business of delivering useful news and information to a community of people in a way that was useful to them, and which brought them together for commerce.

The Internet makes the world, and everything in it, more accessible. The value of news and information operates at an inverse ratio to the number of people who have that information. With Yahoo and Google News giving visitors access to national and even state news via wire services, the value of a local paper will be determined solely by what it can do to differentiate its news. What does a paper bring to the table that I can’t get elsewhere?

When newspapers start thinking about that question, and get away from this archaic idea of the dead tree edition, they may see their profits grow again.

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Clinton and NIE

The big news of the last two days seems to be the meltdown of Bill Clinton on Fox News Sunday and the “leaked” details of the National Intelligence Estimate. The Hill has a column by Dick Morris (currently unavailable due to server error) indicating Clinton’s behavior was more the rule than the exception and challenging his assertions that he was awake at the wheel.

Why didn’t the CIA and FBI realize the extent of bin Laden’s involvement in terrorism? Because Clinton never took the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center sufficiently seriously. He never visited the site and his only public comment was to caution against “over-reaction.” In his pre-9/11 memoirs, George Stephanopoulos confirms that he and others on the staff saw it as a “failed bombing” and noted that it was far from topic A at the White House. Rather than the full-court press that the first terror attack on American soil deserved, Clinton let the investigation be handled by the FBI on location in New York without making it the national emergency it actually was.

The Washington Times and NY Post react with Condi and further info to discredit the claims Clinton made. (Does anyone care to wager the mainstream media will challenge his claims like this?)

On the NIE front, the Washington Post might as well have issued a special edition with wall-to-wall NIE coverage. E.J. Dionne uses it to bolster his argument that the protesters of today are no ‘hippie radicals’ and the GOP faces trouble in November.

That is why news over the weekend of a National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq is especially troublesome for Republican electoral chances. By finding that the war in Iraq has encouraged global terrorism and spawned a new generation of Islamic radicals, the report by 16 government intelligence services undercuts the administration’s central argument that the Iraq war has made the United States safer.

Michael Abramowitz and Jonathan Weisman continue the WaPo NIE highlight reel and cover the Democrats use of the report in their electoral strategy.

Democratic lawmakers yesterday seized on elements of a new classified intelligence assessment as validation of their long-standing position that the Iraq war has been a distraction from the broader war against terrorists, seeing the new study as an opportunity to undermine President Bush’s determined offensive to turn terrorism to political advantage in the midterm elections.

What I find interesting about the Democrat tactic is the fact that they’re arguing the Iraq War is a distraction from terrorism, but ignoring the fact that our presence in Afghanistan – widely perceived to be legitimate by comparison – is also fueling the fire. We’re coming under increasing attack in Afghanistan, and that is an ‘approved’ front in the war on terror.

If the difference between the two is our internal comfort level, someone should let the insurgents know they need to lay off in Kabul because our presence has been self-justified.

The Wall Street Journal probably has the best solution. They suggest the government simply declassify the report – allowing for redaction or summary of sensitive information that would reveal sources or methods.

It’s impossible to know how true this report is, of course, since the NIE itself hasn’t been leaked. The reports are based on what sources claim the NIE says, but we don’t know who those sources are and what motivations they might have. Since their spin coincides rather conveniently with the argument made by Democratic critics of the war, and since this leak has also conveniently sprung in high campaign season, wise readers will be skeptical.

Releasing the NIE is probably the best idea. It’s not like most of what’s in the report would be news to anyone.

The whole debate on the NIE is actually a good case study in how to reduce a problem. The argument seems to be whether the bad guys like us less today than they did before we went into Iraq. They had killed 3,000 Americans in one morning before we went into the Middle East – claiming to still be offended by our efforts in Iraq circa 1991 and our continuing presence in Saudi Arabia – but all of that is lost.

The whole discussion has come down to a debate over “degrees of hate”. It’s kind of stupid if you think about it. Does it matter how much they hate us? If they were flying planes into buildings before they really, really hated us, doesn’t that tell us that we are even more justified in trying to eradicate the threat?

I think it does.

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Sensitivity And Context

Jul 18 2006 Published by under Politics, Republicans

RepublicansPoliticsAdam Nagourney has written a nice article about GOP outreach to African-Americans. His basic premise is right on – the GOP keeps doing things that make African-Americans question on sincerity on issues of race. You don’t need to look far for examples. There was the Katrina response (which was about broken bureaucracy more than it was about race). There is the debate over onerous legacy regulations from the civil rights era that some in the south are questioning (which is not about the Voting Rights Act as a whole, but about some portions that really are extraneous and which the Democrats would politicize if we made an attempt to change them). There is the ongoing perception (right or wrong) that the Republican Party uses African-Americans as boogie men to keep white voters nervous and pushing buttons.

All of these things come down to a larger issue. Just as the Democrats have trouble connecting with people of faith, Republicans will, until they actually spend time getting to know and understand minority issues, have trouble addressing them.

Last week, the Democrats offered advice to their volunteers on how to communicate with voters. It offered this little gem:

Religious items: Do they have any religious items in view? What can you tell by the nature of their religious display?”

Some bloggers put this down as the democrats spying on voters, but that was really shortsighted. What this really reflects is the same problem the GOP has with African-Americans. The Democrats have spent so long advocating a radical liberalism whose teachings (gay rights, abortion, etc) fly in the face of the religious voters. That’s why Howard Dean willingly misrepresented the Democrat platform in an effort to pander to a religious audience.

Similarly, the GOP spent a long time being insensitive to minority voters. In the 60s, 70s, and 80s, that took the form of openly shunning black voters to make inroads with Caucasians. It was short-sighted and RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman issued an apology for it last year. But the GOP’s larger crime is color-blindness – not in the good sense that they ignore color in the way that Martin Luther King, Jr. suggested, but in the bad sense that they do not see, and maybe cannot see, the world the way the minority voters do.

For instance, look at the aftermath of Katrina. The GOP was sensitive to the fact that people were suffering, but completely insensitive to the fact the the people in question were almost universally minorities. They moved with what they felt to be appropriate speed, but failed to understand that to minority viewers, the nightly news looked like coverage of concentration camps must have looked to Jews.

On the Voting Rights Act, the GOP members had valid complaints about the onerous regulations that prevent them from managing their own states without federal approval. It flies against the constitutions philosophy that all powers not granted to the fed rest firmly with the states – and says nothing about the fed having the power to approve state laws. So it made sense that some in the south would want to lift the heavy hand of government from off their backs.

However, what the rest of the party realized, and acted upon, is the fact that many who were alive in the pre-Voting Rights Act era are still alive, and remember the practitioners of segregation and suppression used similar arguments to oppose the Voting Rights Act to begin with. They used regulatory arguments to keep the yoke of tyranny on the black community and deny their rights. So using those same arguments to oppose renewal of the guarantee of their liberties is really, really stupid.

That’s the point to Nagorney’s piece – context and sensitivity. The GOP needs to look beyond its rational arguments at the underlying issues and be sensitive to the perception that others will bring to the analysis/action. We’ll find that more often than not we can rally people to our side if we can understand where they’re coming from and make our case on their terms, rather than simply trying to convince them we’re right.

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