The Campaign I Would Like To See

Someone sent me a link to the YouTube video below and suggested I take a look at about the 35-36 minute mark. I admit, my curiosity got the better of me and I tried to skip ahead, but the gremlins at YouTube would not allow it. I ended up watching the whole thing. I was surprised to hear my name mentioned at about the suggested frame. This is apparently part of the Authors@Google series in which book authors chat with Google employees. Garrett Graff was discussing online politics.

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

The question in which I was mentioned had to do with this Washington Post article in which I said most online campaigns really aren’t moving the ball forward. The question was whether Garrett agreed with my assertion. I’ll let you watch for yourself the discussion and his answer. It’s good, so I recommend you do.

Let me, however, elaborate on the original question I was asked and the reply. I did not mean to imply that campaigns weren’t doing interesting things. Mindy Finn with Romney’s campaign did some really good work on the “create your own ad” effort. Obama’s people have done an amazing job of fundraising online. There are some novel online efforts being undertaken.

What I meant, more specifically, was there does not appear to be any effort to convert that excitement and energy into actual votes. Most of the GOTV work being done is still being done offline. Take for instance this note I got from Hillary’s people.

I’m writing to you because Hillary needs you now more than ever. As I write this email, Team Hillary volunteers here at headquarters are on the phones talking to voters. Can you pitch in for Hillary and join us at the phone bank for at least two get-out-the-vote shifts between now and March 4th? Reply to this email to let me know when you can do your part.

Every night this week a senior advisor to Hillary, including Harold Ickes, Terry McAuliffe, Guy Cecil and campaign manager Maggie Williams, will join our volunteers for strategy discussion of the path to victory. Which night will you volunteer this week?

We need help every day. Our shifts are:

10 a.m. – 2 p.m.
2 p.m. – 6 p.m.
6 p.m. – 10 p.m.

Reply to this email to let me know when you can pitch in for Hillary.

We also have a critical need for volunteers this weekend. Can you pitch in this Saturday or Sunday? Please reply to me and let me know when you can help out!

Obama, Thompson, and Romney all gave me tools that allowed me to make such calls any time it was convenient for me. The technology really isn’t very difficult to create or manage. You allow your user to log in, get a script and numbers, make calls and complete a survey form, and report back the same data they would report back if they were sitting in your HQ.

The Hillary model, which looks like the same model Bill used in 1992, assume I have four uninterrupted hours to spend in your office. It also assumes I want to drive there, find parking, arrange for a sitter, etc. etc. It doesn’t allow for me to participate on my terms on my schedule.

This was something we understood in 2004 and was the reason we pioneered online call tools with the Bush campaign. We made a half-million contacts using our online tools. That was over and above the millions made in the traditional way.

Had Clinton’s campaign spent some time building such a tool instead of figuring out how many Drudge clones they could make (ahem, ahem) they could have empowered their supporters to get involved when and how it was convenient for them.

That was the point that I was trying to make in the Post piece. It’s not that campaigns aren’t doing anything jazzy with technology, it’s the fact that very little of it is meant to empower voters. Romney’s create your own ad effort was a great example. Give people stock footage, audio, video, images, etc, and let them be part of your creative team. Give them walk lists, call sheets, and other tools to mobilize voters and let them do it.

Where the campaigns this year have fallen short is they gave us tools without showing me the best way to use it. If I hand you a hammer, nails and a saw, you could eventually figure out that you could cut down a tree and make something. If I gave you the same tools with a guide to woodworking from raw materials, you’d be much better off.

My vision of campaign 2008 in December of 2004 was dramatically different from what has been. While it still may come to fruition, I’m not seeing much evidence that it will. It should, by nature, have been Obama, Paul or Thompson who pulled this off. I’ll explain what I had hoped to see.

Imagine a completely different campaign. Imagine a campaign that invested heavily in both the mobilization tactics and the microtargeting acumen of the Bush campaign, with the grassroots groundswell of the Dean campaign. Imagine taking a national database of registered voters and creating a sense of ownership among your online activists to reach low-propensity or non-voters. Here’s how it would work.

A campaign invests in microtargeting to determine what their typical supporter looks like as a function of consumer behavior, issue preferences, etc. The campaign buys consumer data for every citizen of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc that matches their model. Not just voters, mind you, but every single citizen that fits the mold.

Online activists are given tools like online phone banks, walk tools and handouts to go door-to-door reaching out to other voters who support their guy. More importantly, though, they match the consumer data for unregistered voters against their voter data to determine who is NOT registered to vote. An intensive campaign is run among online activists to reach them.

When activists are engaged, but nobody else is (say January through October of 2007) the campaign has their people working to register those people. The activists are brought in at the ground level to begin building what will be a long-term relationship with these folks. Geotargeting will allow the activist to find people located very near them, and reach out to them not just as a campaign volunteer, but as a neighbor – as someone who shops at the same grocery store, whose kids go to the same school.

The campaign would ask those volunteers to “adopt” those non-voters and urge them to a) drop off registration forms, b) follow up to make sure they get registered – which the campaign would verify by tracking voter registration additions against it’s internal database of targeted non-voters, c) deliver news and information about the campaign, and d) get them to vote in the primaries/caucuses/general.

We had, with the Bush campaign, developed tools along two separate lines. We called them all “Virtual Precinct”, but they were comprised of either your friends and family (to whom you could e-mail info) or targeted voters living near you (to whom you could walk, call, etc). This year, I had expected to see the two merge as campaigns used microtargeting, geotargeting, and online activism in synchronicity.

You have given your activists incredibly powerful tools to build the campaign. By explaining the goal, building a community, empowering them to be involved, and fostering a sense of ownership in the outcome, you have given them the instruction manual and a way to judge their success.

In addition, you could have volunteers in states with late primaries reaching out to those with early primaries – not in the way Howard Dean attempted with outsiders identified by their neon hats tromping through town, but via phone, e-mail and mail. Personal messages of support for a candidate delivered with passion by a voter in the comfort of their surroundings, are more effective that any stale script repeated over and over by an underfed, underappreciated volunteer jammed into a tight space with 85 other people on phones two feet away.

Think of it as the difference between telecommuting and working in a sweatshop.

That’s what I had expected to see and that’s where I think campaigns are still missing what’s possible. Campaigns in 2008 are, for the most part, still stuck in the mold of the 1980s and 1990s.

We can buy groceries from home and never have to go to the store. We can buy any product we want from Amazon, Buy.com or others and have it the next day without ever leaving the couch. We can play video games with friends we have never met a half a world away. We can engage in whatever pursuits we choose with others who share our hobbies regardless of where we all reside.

But despite all of that, campaigns stil force us to go to their office, to use their phone, to drink their old, cold coffee and eat their leftover doughnuts. Campaigns are still about me doing what they want, when they want me to do it. They miss the simple fact that there is no better spokesperson for the campaign than a single dedicated supporter talking to their friends, neighbors, and family in comfortable surroundings.

Update: Apparently the Clinton campaign actually does have an online phone bank tool. That actually makes the plea for me to appear in person even more confusing. I have not, at any time, received an e-mail asking me to make calls using that tool. I, as a would-be volunteer, was sitting here untapped. I could have made countless calls into states that voted earlier, and states that vote after Virginia. The campaign, however, never mobilized me to use the tool they built. Instead, they waited until after my primary, and until it was almost too late. to ask me to make calls at all.

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Spend It All! Mitt Breaks Fifty Million Heading To 70?

Feb 06 2008 Published by under Candidates, Craziness, Politics, Republicans

Good lord. I was perusing Mitt Romney’s FEC report trying to get a sense of how much money he has lent his campaign. I traded Tweets with Patrick Ruffini and Soren Dayton about ten days ago and we were ball parking the total amount he’ll loan himself at around $50 million. Now I’m not so sure. I think it may be considerably higher.

Based on his Year-End report, Mitt was writing himself a check for three million dollars roughly every two weeks beginning on November 5. That lasted until December 10 when the pace picked up to every 6 or 8 days. Let’s assume that held constant at three large every 8 days between then and now, he’s just broken the $50 million mark and still no closer to getting the nod. If the rate remains constant between now and the first week of March (when Texas and Ohio vote), he will be north of $62 million in personal loans by then.

If his rate accelerated, or the checks got larger, it could be even greater.

If he’s closer to 3 million every six days, he could be closer to $70 million by March 7. That also assumes that the checks are hovering in the 3 million range. The more likely scenario, given the huge expense of competing in 20 states yesterday, is those checks got much, much larger.

It will be interesting to see the final tally, but this does give opponents of public funding an opening. The argument has always been that public financing was needed to counter the fat-cat billionaire who would decide to simply buy his Congressional seat. This should be evidence that money alone is not enough to buy a race. No matter how much you throw at it, an underfunded opponent with better credentials or better ideas will still beat you.

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The Three-Way Two-Man Race

Where to begin… So Supercalifragilistic Tuesday has come and gone, and now we’re left with fewer answers than questions. For instance, Will Obama sweep Chesapeake Tuesday (stupid name, I know, but that’s what they’re calling it) and drive the nomination fight into March and beyond? Will the Republicans three-way two-man race force a convention floor fight? Or can McCain do well enough in Washington, Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio to lock it all up by mid-March?

Allahpundit at HotAir:

“What does it say that after conservative talk show hosts rail against McCain for a week, we do see a bunch of deep red states go for a candidate besides McCain… but it’s not Romney, but Huckabee?”

Well, it’s interesting that McCain won nine states, but it’s more interesting that he failed to win 11. With Romney picking up six and Huck grabbing five, there is an argument to be made that there is more momentum against J-Mac than with him. However, the GOP’s winner take all system gave McCain a sizeable lead among delegates.

It would be fascinating to see Romney and Huckabee announce a Rom/Huck ticket and combine their 434 delegates. That would at least make it close and give the conservatives something to rally behind. The only problem is whether their giant egos would be able to determine who gets top billing.

The bigger problem for the GOP, though is this:

State Dem Vote Total GOP Vote Total Differential
AL 533521 550573 -17052
AR 278764 202700 76064
GA 1040873 952474 88399
MO 820453 584618 235835
OK 401230 329843 71387
SC 530322 442918 87404
TN 612791 548783 64008

These are all states that the GOP carried in 2004, and yet, with the exception of Alabama, the Democrat turnout in those states was dramatically higher then GOP turnout. If those gaps held constant in the general, and both parties voted for their respective nominee, the Democrats would currently hold a 310 to 228 electoral advantage.

Now all of that remaining constant is unlikely. There are a lot of things that will impact turnout and voter behavior in a general election. This is likely a worst case scenario for the GOP at this point.

However, in a year with a wide open field, it doesn’t bode well for the GOP that turnout by Democrats is significantly greater. Keep in mind, the conventional wisdom says primaries and off year elections generally see higher turnout among the GOP because they tend to vote in every election, rather than just Presidential years and General elections. If the turnout among the Democrats in the primaries is that much greater, I shudder to think what sort of fight the eventual nominee is in for.

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And Then There Were Four (and Hucakabe and Paul and Gravel)

With the over-delayed departure of John Edwards, and the implosion of Rudy Giuliani, the race for President comes down to four – Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney. Between them the race is now an endurance campaign to see who has the resources and stamina to see it to the wire.

It increasingly looks like McCain will come out of 2/5 with a near lock on the nomination and will round out the process shortly thereafter. Romney, no doubt, will probably drop from the race on 2/6 or 2/7.

What’s unclear is the state of the Democratic race. Tim Russert and Chuck Todd were on Today this morning discussing the state of play as we look at the apportionment of delegates, the makeup of the superdelegates and the likelihood that their race may continue into the spring. The best part was Tim Russert’s comment about Rudy:

From a national frontrunner to one delegate $50 million dollars later, it will be studied by political scientists for years. It was a disaster.

That may actually turn out to be a bigger flop than Howard Dean’s $50 million debacle in 2003-2004 because on a cost per vote basis, Rudy fares far worse at this point. Dean also had the scream, so you can point to a total meltdown of his campaign. Rudy just had a terrible strategy. Note to future candidates, skip one early primary? Maybe. Skip five? Not so much.

Now, other than the eventual Democratic nominee, the one open question is when Mike Gravel, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee will come to the conclusion that they have run their course and drop out as well. The longer Huckabee clings to the idea that he can win, the more petty he looks. He’ll undoubtedly make some snide comments about Romney stealing his votes. To be fair to him though, for a week or two before Iowa it looked like Huck might be the guy. That has to hurt.

The next big question is who will become the Pat Buchanan of 2008 and deliver a spastic, knee-jerk extremist speech at the convention that harms their parties chances for winning three months later? Will either party deny the also rans a place at the podium?

Honestly, my money is split now between Huckabee and Paul. Either Huckabee stands up and makes an impassioned case that homosexuals are the equivalent of rapists, molesters and monkey-humpers; or Paul goes off on a 20 minute tirade against the World Bank and advocates for the legalization of black tar heroine. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

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The New BarackObama.com

I’m a bit late to the party on this, but hopefully it’s fashionably late, and not like the guy that gets there after everyone has gone home and wants to sit and chat despite the fact that you’re dropping hints for him to get out. I thought I’d take a closer look at the new BarackObama.com. I still think, despite all the prognostications that Hillary has it locked, that he’ll pull this out and be the eventual nominee – even if it takes a floor fight.

This started as a review of the recently revamped website, and became sort of a hybrid post about the site and some general issues with online campaigns in general. I have to be honest; I began from the point of view that I don’t really get why they changed the site at all. The vast majority of voters is still tuned out, probably had not been to the site, and therefore wouldn’t really be sick of it. However, I realize that the staff probably was, the hardcore supporters probably were, and since Obama believes that change is good, well…

If the post gets kind of disjointed about halfway through, that’s because the review also coincided with an interview I did with Jose Vargas and some questions about how campaigns should be using their site to engage voters in states where they may have little to no time to campaign as a result of the compressed primary schedule. After that call, I began to look at Obama’s site through that prism, and specifically began to compare it to other sites through the same lens.

In other words, I wrote half of it when I was with Linda, and half of it after we broke up. And I should warn you I was listening to the Cure a lot.

Color Scheme and Appearance

Honestly, I’m not a big fan of the glowing blue ethereal cloud look. It’s a little too artsy for me. You can’t really make it out in the screen grab above, but they also have a mesh effect oddly reminiscent of the background on dollar bills behind the sign up option. When they continue the flowing blue angel effect into the headline, as they did above, it makes the whole page a little overbearing. It’s way too blue, and feels like I have died and Obama is the maker. I can’t imagine that’s the look they were going for.

On a whole other level, the site also contradicts one of the things so many people credit him for – his speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention. Wasn’t it he who spoke of no liberal America and no conservative America, but only one America. Didn’t he challenge the idea of pundits dividing us into red states and blue states? Yet he seems to be sending a signal that he is the bluest of the blue.

I don’t know if that was their intention, but as a Republican, it was the first thing I noticed. It’s very, very, very blue.

The other big problem the site has is readability. With the text and background colors they have chosen, large chunks of the site become almost entirely unreadable. Take these two examples:

I’m no expert on graphic design, but I like to think I have a pretty good bead on what does and doesn’t fly on the web. I also have a pretty good feel for what is and isn’t W3C Compliant. Both of the examples above fail that test. The choice of grey text on white also causes readability issues throughout the site

Now I freely admit that I’m one of the older dogs in the online politics game. I’m knocking on 38 and most of the people I work with on campaigns are just out of (or still in) college. I suppose it’s possible that Obama’s website is kind of like the mosquito ringtone – only those under 30 can read it. If so, that might explain the huge advantage he enjoys with young voters.

Unfortunately, it causes a significant number of others to have a heck of a time working his navigation. Where I am from, that’s a bad thing.

The Action Center

I continue to be a big fan of Obama’s action center. Since the last time I spent time exploring his web presence, not much has changed as far as functionality with the exception of the online phone bank. One thing struck me about that tool, however. The Bush campaign referred to its online phone bank as Neighbor to Neighbor and under the larger umbrella “Personal Precinct”. Mitt has “Call from Home” Thompson had “Phone for Fred”, and McCain calls his, simply, “Online Phone Bank”. These are less than clever names to be sure, but I do think these tools need to have a brand that conveys a) exactly what’s expected and b) how simple that is. Obama calls his “Peer Contact”. If I saw that as an uninitiated volunteer, new to the process, I would have no idea what it was. Even “Make Calls for Obama” would be better than “Peer Contact.”

One problem Obama shares with his chief rival Hillary Clinton is a limited implementation of their calling tool. When I log in to Obama’s application, I have the three options to make calls with two of those being into New Mexico. Hillary’s, on the other hand, has only one option to make calls into California regarding absentee ballots (aren’t there other primaries coming up?).

(note: the screen grab above was taken after the post was drafted. When I logged back in, I only had two options, but originally had three.)

I’m not sure if any of the Republicans are any better at this. I can’t log in to Romney’s TMAC, McCain is focused solely on Florida (as he should be), and Rudy doesn’t seem to have such a tool (at least, not that I could find quickly, and on the Internet if you can’t find it fast, it may as well not be there at all). I tried signing up for a Team Rudy password, but ten minutes later have not received my confirmation/validation e-mail.

Looking just at the Dems, though, at least when I click on Obama’s, I get people and a script. When I click on Hillary’s, I get a message indicating that “no callees are available”. Huh? Are you kidding me? You can’t find anyone in California for me to call? What about those other states? You know, the ones voting next Tuesday. With Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado , Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah all picking their nominee next week, you would think the two campaigns would have some folks to call.

States

Obama does make good use of a tactic we tried with the Bush campaign in 2004 – creating state specific pages with content relevant to the specific location. The bad news is the New Mexico page, a week before their election, is broken (pictured at right). The other states voting next week seem to be fine and contain interesting content. For instance, Obama has done a good job of including the ads they’re running in the states. Many campaigns run ads only in one location to talk to specific segments of the population. Pre-YouTube, these ads were often never seen by people in other states. Obama has provided them on a state by state basis providing some nice transparency.

Campaigns can leverage those state urls in ads and drive voters in each state to specific information about the candidate and activities available to help. While campaigns are getting better at including their url in their ads, it can still be a tough sell to get the leadership to include them throughout the entire ad.

In 2004, Kerry’s team did a great job of getting the campaign to understand the value of driving traffic with an ever-present address. The GOP still doesn’t do that in most cases. They see the url as a distraction from the message. I’d like to see a campaign like Barack’s employ not only a steady state url, but also make it specific to the state. An ad with the address BarackObama.com/NewMexico is more likely to grab my attention than simply BarackObama.com. I’m more likely to come back. As long as that ad is running, the state page should also feature more information specific to the ad in question.

The one thing missing

The one thing I really don’t see on Obama’s site is Obama. I see his picture up top, and I see clips of his speeches in their video content, but I don’t see a lot of him making a personal contribution to his site. I’d really like to see him posting regularly, or doing some candid video. I’d really like to see him being as active in his community as he’s asking us to be.

This is a complaint that I have of almost all the campaigns. In most cases, the url for these sites is the candidate’s name, but that’s about the only thing on which they have left their mark. The sites still feel corporate. They still feel more like the website for IBM. Some sort of connection with the candidate is why people are coming to the site, yet the site is often the last place you can find the candidate’s imprint.

Below Average

Overall, I’d give the makeover a “C-”. I was a fan of the old site, and just really think they took this in the wrong direction. I didn’t test it with a screen reader for 508 compliance, because it was hard enough to read without a screen reader. I can’t imagine that would make it easier. The contrast is way off, making a lot of the text hard to read. However, at least that takes your mind off the overwhelming blueness of it all.

The tools he provides are quite good, but the implementation is a bit off. I’d like to see more call opportunities in states voting next week. If there is still no clear nominee next Wednesday, it will become increasingly expensive to run in every state. The Internet could be a powerful tool for both communicating to the states where financial limitations make door-to-door campaigning hard. They can empower their people to be the force multiplier (as they should be doing for next week).

Unfortunately, nobody seems to be doing this, so at least Obama doesn’t stand out.

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