The Three-Way Two-Man Race

Feb 06 2008 Published by under Barack Obama, Candidates, Democrats, Elections, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Republicans

Where to begin… So Supercalifragilistic Tuesday has come and gone, and now we’re left with fewer answers than questions. For instance, Will Obama sweep Chesapeake Tuesday (stupid name, I know, but that’s what they’re calling it) and drive the nomination fight into March and beyond? Will the Republicans three-way two-man race force a convention floor fight? Or can McCain do well enough in Washington, Wisconsin, Texas and Ohio to lock it all up by mid-March?

Allahpundit at HotAir:

“What does it say that after conservative talk show hosts rail against McCain for a week, we do see a bunch of deep red states go for a candidate besides McCain… but it’s not Romney, but Huckabee?”

Well, it’s interesting that McCain won nine states, but it’s more interesting that he failed to win 11. With Romney picking up six and Huck grabbing five, there is an argument to be made that there is more momentum against J-Mac than with him. However, the GOP’s winner take all system gave McCain a sizeable lead among delegates.

It would be fascinating to see Romney and Huckabee announce a Rom/Huck ticket and combine their 434 delegates. That would at least make it close and give the conservatives something to rally behind. The only problem is whether their giant egos would be able to determine who gets top billing.

The bigger problem for the GOP, though is this:

State Dem Vote Total GOP Vote Total Differential
AL 533521 550573 -17052
AR 278764 202700 76064
GA 1040873 952474 88399
MO 820453 584618 235835
OK 401230 329843 71387
SC 530322 442918 87404
TN 612791 548783 64008

These are all states that the GOP carried in 2004, and yet, with the exception of Alabama, the Democrat turnout in those states was dramatically higher then GOP turnout. If those gaps held constant in the general, and both parties voted for their respective nominee, the Democrats would currently hold a 310 to 228 electoral advantage.

Now all of that remaining constant is unlikely. There are a lot of things that will impact turnout and voter behavior in a general election. This is likely a worst case scenario for the GOP at this point.

However, in a year with a wide open field, it doesn’t bode well for the GOP that turnout by Democrats is significantly greater. Keep in mind, the conventional wisdom says primaries and off year elections generally see higher turnout among the GOP because they tend to vote in every election, rather than just Presidential years and General elections. If the turnout among the Democrats in the primaries is that much greater, I shudder to think what sort of fight the eventual nominee is in for.

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And Then There Were Four (and Hucakabe and Paul and Gravel)

Jan 30 2008 Published by under Barack Obama, Candidates, Democrats, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Politics, Republicans

With the over-delayed departure of John Edwards, and the implosion of Rudy Giuliani, the race for President comes down to four – Clinton, Obama, McCain and Romney. Between them the race is now an endurance campaign to see who has the resources and stamina to see it to the wire.

It increasingly looks like McCain will come out of 2/5 with a near lock on the nomination and will round out the process shortly thereafter. Romney, no doubt, will probably drop from the race on 2/6 or 2/7.

What’s unclear is the state of the Democratic race. Tim Russert and Chuck Todd were on Today this morning discussing the state of play as we look at the apportionment of delegates, the makeup of the superdelegates and the likelihood that their race may continue into the spring. The best part was Tim Russert’s comment about Rudy:

From a national frontrunner to one delegate $50 million dollars later, it will be studied by political scientists for years. It was a disaster.

That may actually turn out to be a bigger flop than Howard Dean’s $50 million debacle in 2003-2004 because on a cost per vote basis, Rudy fares far worse at this point. Dean also had the scream, so you can point to a total meltdown of his campaign. Rudy just had a terrible strategy. Note to future candidates, skip one early primary? Maybe. Skip five? Not so much.

Now, other than the eventual Democratic nominee, the one open question is when Mike Gravel, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee will come to the conclusion that they have run their course and drop out as well. The longer Huckabee clings to the idea that he can win, the more petty he looks. He’ll undoubtedly make some snide comments about Romney stealing his votes. To be fair to him though, for a week or two before Iowa it looked like Huck might be the guy. That has to hurt.

The next big question is who will become the Pat Buchanan of 2008 and deliver a spastic, knee-jerk extremist speech at the convention that harms their parties chances for winning three months later? Will either party deny the also rans a place at the podium?

Honestly, my money is split now between Huckabee and Paul. Either Huckabee stands up and makes an impassioned case that homosexuals are the equivalent of rapists, molesters and monkey-humpers; or Paul goes off on a 20 minute tirade against the World Bank and advocates for the legalization of black tar heroine. Either way, it will be interesting to watch.

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The Real Mike Huckabee

Jan 23 2008 Published by under Candidates, Politics, Republicans

From Rich Galen’s Mullings:

  • Thompson never got more than 16 percent of the votes in any of the primaries or caucuses, so his endorsement would not seem to be crucial to any of the remaining candidates. Nevertheless, two of them were gracious in their comments.
  • According to Associated Press reporters Dave Espo and Liz Sidoti, John McCain said:

    “Fred Thompson ran an honorable campaign. He and I will remain close friends, and I wish him and his family the best.”

  • Mitt Romney responded to the news of Thompson’s exit:

    “Throughout this campaign, Fred Thompson brought a laudable focus to the challenges confronting our country and the solutions necessary to meet them. He stood for strong conservative ideas and believed strongly in the need to keep our conservative coalition together.”

  • Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, whined that Thompson should have gotten out of the race before South Carolina because “the votes that he took essentially were votes that I would have most likely had.”

    • That should tell you everything you need to know. If the “Oops, I didn’t mean to slander Mormonism,” and “Golly, that does look like a cross” BS didn’t tell you what a dirtbag this guy is, or how low he plays, that sums it up.

    Despite my belief that we are left with a terribly weak field, I now have a new favorite – anybody but Huckabee.

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