Archive for the 'Polls' category

The NSA and You

May 12 2006 Published by under Democrats, Government, Politics, Polls, Republicans, Society, Terrorism, The President

GovernmentPoliticsA buddy of mine at the RNC and I have had a long running disagreement over the NSA domestic spying program. He was actually buying into the “terrorist surveillance” semantics the Administration was pushing. I’m not sure if he still is, given the revelation yesterday that the phone records of tens of millions of Americans are being mined for intelligence. The Washington Post says 63% of Americans think this is acceptable, so I doubt he’s one of the remaining 37%

Let’s assume the Administration is telling the truth and they really are just trying to find patterns that indicate some sort of shady activity. If that’s the case, you have to assume that the vast majority of the “tens of millions” give absolutely no indication of potential terrorist activity after being analyzed.

Let’s also assume that the average American “has nothing to fear because he’s doing nothing wrong”. That’s the reason people generally give when they hear stuff like this. Because I have nothing to fear, it’s ok if you do it to me, and to others.

That means the phone records of average Americans who are doing nothing wrong (guys like my friend Jay who happens to be married to an Iranian woman who calls home occasionally) are being studied. He has nothing to fear, because he’s done nothing wrong, but why should his phone calls be studied (and I imagine, under the other program, they’re being monitored as well) simply because of his wife’s nation of birth? Why should he, because of his individual circumstances, or because of who he chose to marry, be studied as if he were a criminal? Isn’t that an inherent discrimination?

This is still America, right? We are still assumed innocent until “proven” guilty, right? Every American, whether they have something to fear or not, should fear these programs. They are not based on a presumption of innocence. They are based on an assumption of guilt – somebody’s guilt. The fact that we don’t actually have a suspect is ignored by the government. Instead, they’re fishing through the garbage cans outside our homes to try to find evidence of a crime. They’ll cast a net into the innocents and segregate some pool of them until they can prove themselves innocent.

That’s not how government should behave, and as a Republican/libertarian, I fear any government big enough to ignore the constitution and to presume that the potential guilt of one justifies a willful attack on the rights of the many.

If the Democrats, under Clinton, had engaged in these same activities, the GOP would have screamed so loud you would have heard them in Canada. They would have railed aginst the heavy hand of government and decried the presence of big brother in our lives. Yet today, obsessed with controlling the levers of power, convinced of our own moral superiority, and believing some fairy tale that this is ok because “we have nothing to fear”, we are cheerleading the Administration for “making us safer”.

I imagine the citizens of any totalitarian regime that came to power, and instituted the same sorts of clandestine surveillance of it’s people, were met with initial attitudes of “that’s ok, I have nothing to hide.” Only after that government trampled on some right you did hold dear, and you finally felt violation at the hands of the state, did you stand up in opposition to their tactics.

Then you found your life scrutinized using the same tactics you previously advocated. You realized, because you spoke out, that suddenly you did have something to fear – suddenly you were the one being watched.

This scenario has played out in may nations throughout history. And you know what they say about those who fail to learn the lessons of history…

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All The News That Fits…

May 09 2006 Published by under Candidates, Democrats, Elections, Politics, Polls, Republicans, War

PoliticsDespite yesterday’s comments about the general superiority of Monday news, today is shaping up pretty well. The Washington Post’s Richard Cohen stumbled upon the angry left because he pointed out – rightly so – that Colbert’s performance at the White House Correspondent’s Dinner was just really, really, unfunny.

It seemed that most of my correspondents had been egged on to write me by various blogs. In response, they smartly assembled into a digital lynch mob and went roaring after me. If I did not like Colbert, I must like Bush. If I write for The Post, I must be a mainstream media warmonger. If I was over a certain age — which I am — I am simply out of it, wherever “it” may be. All in all, I was — I am, and I guess I remain — the worthy object of ignorant, false and downright idiotic vituperation.

I normally like Colbert, and I imagine Cohen may, as well. But the left, despite their cheerleading for John Kerry’s sense of nuance, sees the world in the same monochromatic way the Bush Administration does – you’re either with us, or against us. If you dare to state the obvious – that Colbert sucked that night – you are clearly a GOP stooge. It’s good that the angry left is turning on the moderates enough that they’re starting to see what Republicans have been saying for several years.

Bloomberg is reporting that the Iraq War and Vietnam enjoy differing levels of support. I have to say, this is probably the strangest piece of writing I have ever seen.

More Americans — 57 percent — say sending troops to Iraq was a mistake than the 48 percent who called Vietnam an error in April 1968, polls by the Princeton, New Jersey-based Gallup Organization show. That’s because more people believed that Vietnam was crucial to U.S. security, scholars say.

Comparing wars seems to me to be the ultimate apples and oranges scenario. Different political drivers, differences in force strength, differences in the attitude of the American people about life in general skew any possible findings. To say that the difference is purely attributable to the relative importance people place on the security interests of the nation is somewhat simplistic. The article glosses over the fact that 10 times as many US troops had died in Vietnam, and many were conscripted into service as opposed to our current all volunteer force. In doing so, they ignore a set of circumstances that seem to go unnoticed by opponents of the war who would attempt such comparisons.

Roll Call goes the opposite direction and clearly explains why 2006 isn’t like 1994. Echoing the Cohen piece, Winston’s take is the electorate is not reflected in the left.

Of those tested, voters perceived Howard Dean as the most liberal at 3.7. They gave the Democratic Party a 3.9 rating. Both President Bush and the Republican Party got a 6.6 rating.

The numbers take on real meaning, however, when put in the context of how voters see themselves ideologically. On average, voters put their own political ideology at 5.7 — clearly center-right, and within less than a point of the GOP. The voters’ perception of Democrats, on the other hand, was significantly to their left.

Now the Democrats see these three articles quite differently. They see the lack of public support for Iraq as their Golden Ticket. They believe those who question the war share their rabid ideology and will turn out in droves to drive the GOP from power – as they were driven out in 1994. It’s just not true, however.

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This Is Code For “We Don’t Have A Clue How To Spin This”

May 08 2006 Published by under Politics, Polls, Republicans

Republicans

“It is a challenging political environment,” acknowledges Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, “but we are confident that ultimately voters in November will recognize that a Democrat Congress would simply not be equipped to ensure either economic or national security for our nation.”

That’s the RNC’s response to a new USA Today survey showing the President down to a 31% approval with 65% disapproval. Granted the sample is adults, and that’s never a good predictor of the electorate come November. Still, the rain clouds just don’t seem to be breaking up for the administration.

Usually when you get in a bad news rut, it lasts a few days or a week, and then something changes the environment. I know trudging through the Abu Ghraib scandal on the campaign felt like a lifetime, but it was actually pretty short lived.

The outlook now just doesn’t seem to be getting any better, and it keeps coming down. That makes it hard to keep your eyes on the ball. My hat’s off to Tracey and the gang at the RNC who keep fighting on even when faced with this steady barrage of negative news.

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News You Can Use (Or Ignore)

May 02 2006 Published by under Congress, Democrats, Government, Politics, Polls, Republicans, The Internet, The President

Lots of good stuff in the news today, but you have to dig for some of it. I’ll save you the trouble by dumpster diving for the tidbits.

When did Abramoff go to the White House and who did he meet? That question will be answered within the next week as the Secret Service turns the White House visitor logs over to Judicial Watch.

A bunch of new polls indicate a gloomy environment for the GOP. Gallup/USA shows the lowest approval of Bush’s Presidency and the lowest marks for the GOP at large since the anti-impeachment days of 1998.

In the meantime, CBS found that 47% believe the Democrats would be better at keeping gas prices low. Of course, that really means 53% don’t think they would be better, think nobody can do it (the right answer given its a supply/demand problem) or think the GOP is better. The poll is adults only, so it’s not terribly surprising the number is around 47%. The Democrats have done a good job of portraying Republicans as tools of the oil industry, so a generic concept like that is bound to emerge in polling with a question like that.

The New York Times has an interesting article on GOP policies toward abortion/abstinence/promiscuity and the morning after pill (subscription required, but they offer a free trial). The column makes the case that GOP efforts to limit contraception are actually driving abortion rates higher.

President Bush’s Food and Drug Administration has blocked that, apparently fearing that better contraception will encourage promiscuity. But unless the libidophobes in the administration mandate chastity belts, their opposition to Plan B amounts to a pro-abortion policy.

Two thoughts on that… A) I like the term libidophobes. I think I’ll incorporate that into my repertoire. B) This article is right on the money. We need to decide if our goal is fewer abortions or a puritanical belief system toward sex. As long as we’re pursuing both on a dual track, we’ll never achieve either.

Finally, under the heading imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, the Bush-Cheney eCampaign team should feel pretty flattered. It seems the Democrats learned something from our online efforts in 2004 and copied our “testimonials and photos” messages following our online/offline events like Party for the President. Howard Dean sent me a nice little note sharing some of the thoughts from their event this weekend.

Dear Friend,

I wanted to pass along to you a few testimonials and photos from volunteers like you who were out in force this weekend:

http://www.democrats.org/april29photos

Isn’t that sweet? It’s too bad their events system is up to speed yet. If they want to copy us outright, you should be able to generate your own maps and literature online and never have to deal with the party. That’s the point to the Internet. It’s on my terms, not yours.

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GOP GOTV

May 01 2006 Published by under Politics, Polls, Republicans

Donald Lambro in the Washington Times today writes:

At a time when voters are in a sour mood and the GOP-run Congress is experiencing its lowest approval polls in years, Republican operatives here have reactivated their ground forces in key battleground states. These campaign workers have been sending in weekly reports on the number of new Republican voters they have identified and registered in strategic toss-up races, using a vast e-mail network linking district, state, regional and national party operations.

Having just spent a few days in the real world, I have to say the outlook is pretty bleak. The wife and I just took the little guy home. I spent several days listening to the thoughts and concerns of people for whom Washington DC represents most of what’s wrong with out country. They’re pissed at the GOP for the way it’s bungling things and pissed at the Democrats for being more concerned about regaining power than they are about actually solving problems.

It’s not a pretty view from the cheap seats.

The good news for the GOP should be the fact that I never heard anyone say the words Iraq or Iran. Unfortunately, that can also be seen as bad news since it indicates domestic issues have replaced security as the cause du jour. The really bad news is immigration was the main topic followed almost immediately by skyrocketing gas prices. The real world, especially in states where median income per month is less than half a DC house payment, is hurting. They’ll be looking for someone to savage, and at the moment, I suspect the GOP is it.

The one saving grace for the party may be, as Lambro says, “Republicans have road-tested and perfected an efficient voter identification and turnout system.” The GOP in 2004, left no doubt that they knew how to get people to the polls. The question this year is whether that machinery will run as smoothly given the sour taste in the electorate’s mouth.

The latest Fox News poll shows the President with a 33% approval. Among Republicans, he’s hovering around 66%, which is not great, but also not horrible. Horrible is his approval among independents – which hovers at just over a quarter. That’s about 18 points lower amongst the GOP and 8 points lower among independents than he was at the height of the Abu Ghraib scandal – the low point during the 2004 election.

As prognosticators like to say, ‘we’re still six months away from the election and a lot can happen in six months.’ That’s certainly true. The president’s approval was in the doldrums in the spring 0f 2004, and the GOP came back to win the election by a solid margin. It could happen again with the midterms. On the other hand, given the bleed amongst the GOP faithful and the loss of a good chunk of independents, it could be a bloodbath come November.

Let’s hope that Duhaime and the gang over at 310 First Street can pull it together as Lambro suggests they might.

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