Archive for: June, 2008

I’m Withdrawing My Name From Consideration for VP

Jun 30 2008 Published by Turk under Miscellany

The LA Times has a slightly amusing look at the laudry list of candidates mentioned in the 2008 Veepstakes.

“This list is getting so long that everyone’s going to end up on it eventually,” joked Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.), who has advised Obama on whom to pick.

The list of people I have heard on both sides can only be described as staggering. I pity the poor saps in research shops who are pouring over every word, every nuance, every tenuous grasp at a position these would be Cheneys have ever uttered, muttered or drafted.

One name that keeps popping up on the GOP side is Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana. The mere mention of his name is typically followed by “but if he’s smart, he’ll say no. Otherwise he’s ruining himself.”

On that note, I’d like to specifically state that I’m not interested in the job. Given my clearly demonstrated independence, I might be just the kind of guy McCain looks for to balance his “not your father’s GOP” positioning. While I would appreciate the attention, I just wouldn’t want to ruin myself either.

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Damn You, Guitar Hero!

Jun 25 2008 Published by Turk under Miscellany

Spent some time playing Guitar Hero last night and was reminded of the single most irritating part of playing that game. It’s not the fast fingering required for the expert level… It’s not the addictive nature of the game…

The most annoying thing is the fact that every time I play, I can’t get the music that runs behind the menu out of my head. Driving in this morning I was playing it over and over in my brain. I did a quick Google search to find the artist and discovered it’s actually in the game, but unlocked only in the co-op career mode.

The offending tune? Matchbook Romance’s Monsters. Here’s the video, in case you’re interested.

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

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Obama’s Playing Small Ball

Jun 24 2008 Published by Turk under Miscellany

(cross-posted at The Next Right)

Last week the Obama campaign released a list of states where it was going up with advertising – Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

An odd grouping of states, no doubt. I saw a couple of posts that could explain most of those choices, but te authors always had trouble with Alaska, North Dakota and other outliers. Most posts simply suggested this was a combination of three things; trying to expand the map, normal targeting choices, and pipe dreams.

I disagree and I’d like to propose a new theory – one that I believe explains every choice very clearly.

At about the same time this list was released, I was listening to a presentation regarding state legislative bodies and places where the partisan control of chambers was razor thin. What surprised me was the striking similarity between the two lists.

State Democrats Need To Gain Democrats Hold Target State?
Alaska +3, +1 House, Senate Neither N
Colorado Both Y
Florida +6 Senate Neither Y
Georgia +6 Senate Neither N
Iowa Both Y
Indiana House (+1, trying to hold) N
Michigan +2 Senate House (+3) Y
Missouri +3 Senate Neither Y
Montana +1 House Senate (+2) N
Nevada +1 Senate House (+6) N
New Hampshire Both Y
New Mexico Both Y
North Carolina Both N
North Dakota +3 Senate Neither N
Ohio +4, +5 House, Senate Neither Y
Pennsylvania +5 Senate House (+1) Y
Wisconsin +3 House Senate Y
Virginia +6 House Senate (+1) N

The states that would not normally be target states, but in which he is spending money have one of two common characteristics. They are either states in which the Democrats are exceptionally close to controlling one or both houses, or states where they control one or both houses by slim margins.

Essentially, Obama (a former state legislator himself) is playing small ball. He’s using the vast sum of money he’s going to raise to set up the rest of the team for scoring runs. He understands the role of state legislatures and is helping them increase their numbers.

Why? Because Obama and his team are looking to pull a Tom Delay. By setting up the Democrats to win these legislative bodies, he’ll be able to stymie (or dominate) the redistricting process and be able to not only elect more Democrats, but use it to put even larger majorities in place after 2010.

Will the Democrats have enough money to compete in 2010 and win the seats then? Maybe. Maybe not. However, it’s generally harder to raise the funds to compete in state legislative races, reagrdless of the top of the ticket.

In 2008, however, if Obama can actually raise and spend $500 million, that allows for a huge amount of leeway. By spending money on uplifting ads like his first, in states where he’s not likely to win statewide, he can still move numbers on a district by district basis. He can use vast sums of money to help them now, and focus next year on the few remaining seats necessary to seize power

What this all means for Republicans is scary.

Whether John McCain wins or not is almost irrelevant. If Obama does what I think he’s doing, even if the Republicans are successful at challenging Democrats in 2010 and win back some seats (I’m working under the assumption that 2008 is a wash at best for us), the legislatures the Democrats control after November can erase those gains in redistricting. We could be looking at a minority for a long time to come.

While we fret about the chances of J-Mac or our ability to reclaim congressional districts, we should be looking a lot closer at state legislative races and how to make a difference in these states. We should be looking for ways to beat back Team Obama and prevent them from relegating the GOP to a long time in the wilderness.

Update: Thanks to Ben Smith at Politico and Obama’s Deputy campaign manager for confirming my hypothesis in today’s Politico.

But winning the White House won’t be his only goal, deputy campaign manager Hildebrand told Politico: In an unusual move, Obama’s campaign will also devote some resources to states it’s unlikely to win, with the goal of influencing specific local contests in places like Texas and Wyoming.

“Texas is a great example where we might not be able to win the state, but we want to pay a lot of attention to it,” Hildebrand said. “It’s one of the most important redistricting opportunities in the country.”

Texas Democrats are five seats away in each chamber from control of the state legislature, which will redraw congressional districts after the 2010 census.

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An Open Challenge to Matt Stoller

I recently wrote a post about the fact that someone punched Matt Stoller in the face, and suggested it might have had something to do with him accusing people of being racist at every opportunity. Matt even weighed in and (correctly) pointed out that the post I had linked to was not drafted by him. He didn’t argue that charge that he likes to cry racism, he just argued the post’s authorship.

Well now he’s at it again.

In a post referring to an overtly racist pin some jackass was selling at the Texas GOP convention, Matt can’t help but make the claim that this is evidence of rampant racism in the Republican Party.

Every time I go on C-Span, and I’ve been on five times now, I get asked about race by callers on both sides. And while I try to make the point that the Republican Party is pretty racist on an institutional basis, the regular Republican activists are just so much more eloquent at expressing this point themselves.

His Twitter post of the same linked post said simply:

Texas Republicans, adorably racist as usual

Now this isn’t the first time Stoller has leveled this charge against Republicans. In a February 2006 post about a commenter at RedState, he claims to throw the term around sparingly.

I don’t throw around the racist word very often, because to me it is a very very serious charge. But there’s no other way to say it; this right-wing blogger ‘Blanton’ at Redstate is racist, and all the commenter freaks nodding in frothing agreement to his screed seem mighty close as well.

Yet his Twitter post, his current piece on the pin, his post on McCain’s “racist dogwhistle” in Meridian, a March 2006 post about the GOP’s “deeply racist institutional nature” and other Stoller diatribes have been pretty loose with the term and the generalization that Republicans are racist. (Granted, the McCain post was later updated to reflect his error, but how many of the people who linked initially updated their posts later to note his retraction?)

So a guy who claims to be conservative in the frequency with which he levels that particular charge uses some pretty generalized language whenever he does.

I find this interesting give the Democratic Primary voters who indicated that race was the sole or significant factor in casting their vote. Based on exit polls in a variety of states, you could easily argue that 15-20% of the Democratic base is racist. They openly declared that they voted based on that, or it was a significant factor in their decision.

So here’s my challenge to Matt…

I have $100 for him and will, on the day after the election, issue via this blog, TheNextRight, RedState, and TechPresident both a public apology for my “black eye post” as well as a formal acknowledgement that my party is more racist than the Democrats.

The conditions

On election day, if the final exit polls show Republican voters are significantly more racist, I will give Matt the hundred dollars and the apology. (By significantly, I’ll propose a 10% variation – so if Democrats report 15%, the Republicans can be no higher than 16.5%. If the Democrats are 20%, the Republicans can’t exceed 22%)

If, however, the number of Republicans who say that they voted based on race is lower than, or not significantly higher than the number of Democrats who say the same, Matt will give me $100 and post on OpenLeft, MyDD, and DailyKos a written statement that he is wrong, and Republicans are not institutionally racist, and his own party, is in fact, more so.

Pu your money where your mouth is, Matt. How sure are you about the GOP given your own party’s proclivity to declare their racism openly?

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Of Political Wordles

Jun 17 2008 Published by Turk under Diversions, Miscellany, Technology, The Internet

@KatieHarbath points me to Wordle, and interesting “printed word as art” sort of project. It allows you to take a large block of text (this blog post, for instance) and it will convert the phrases into a word cloud based on their relative frequency of usage. You can mess around with the colors, fonts, skew, and other factors to make your art.

This is the Worlde created using that post (click the img to see it larger).

Like many things on the net, the relative usefulness of this is low versus the entertainment value. As a blogger, however, I like it for the way it frames the things I’m talking about in the larger context of the total volume of traffic on those subjects.

It’s worth a few minutes of your time to test it out.

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