I’ve joked (ok, at least partly joked) lately that I may have trouble deciding whether to vote for Bob Barr in the election this November. While I think McCain (as compared to Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee) was the best alternative left in a pretty weak deck after Thompson failed to ignite, he’s no great shakes. People will vote for John McCain for the same reason they buy vanilla ice cream – they want something mild and flavorless rather than something they have to think about.

There will be, however, more than a few people who can’t stand the thought of someone as liberal as Obama, but also aren’t too keen on someone as liberal-friendly as McCain. So I started to actually take a serious look at the possible effect of a Barr candidacy on the possible outcome in November. There is a potential there for a Perot-like or Nader-like spoiler.

A lot of people I know within the GOP have adopted an attitude that can be summed up simply – the party deserves to get its ass kicked and spend some time in the wilderness. The reasoning is the GOP has lost its way on fiscal restraint, ethics, size/scope of government, and most other measures of the issues that brought us to the dance.

Now drawing out that analogy and thinking back to grade school dating power plays… If the date that brought you takes off and starts dancing with another, do you sit in the corner sulking, hoping they’ll come to their senses? Or do you find someone else to dance with in the hopes that they’ll get jealous and realize what they’re missing?

For people who are considering sitting this one out, Bob Barr may end up being their go-to guy instead.

His credentials are shaky at best. He led the charge for Clinton’s impeachment, but did so based on Bill’s shady campaign financing, not his extracurricular blow jobs. He led the charge on defining marriage as one man and one woman, but now regrets some of that and opposes a federal amendment because it violates the rights of states to decide things for themselves. He was for the Patriot Act before he was against it. He led the fight against medical marijuana laws, but the Libertarian platform has typically been pro-legalization.

So his past positions and present statements tend to paint a picture of a guy at odds with himself, and both his current and former party. Still, he had a fairly solid following when he was in Congress and his positions (however much they’ve solidified now) may be attractive enough to a sizable group of people.

The Libertarian Party typically garners between .3 and .5 percent of the vote nationally – not even enough votes to break out of the “other” category when the final tally is rung up. However, on a state by state basis, they could be significantly impact the GOP’s chances.

For instance, If Barr were able to pull just 2% in Ohio (based on 2004′s numbers) and those extra votes were subtracted from Bush’s total (let’s assume McCain runs about the same minus Barr’s votes), then a Barr candidacy could cost McCain Ohio. Barr would need to pull 5% in Florida (with the same assumptions) to cost the GOP the sunshine state.

But forget states like Florida and Ohio, and look at states like New Mexico, Iowa (tipped by a 2% and .8% swing, respectively) and Colorado (which would take about a 5% Libertarian vote). If Barr gets traction in those three states, suddenly you have enough EVs in play to overturn the results of 2004. Suddenly Obama walks into the White House while losing both Ohio and Florida. Colorado is already trending away from the GOP, New Mexico is fickle anyway, and Iowa was only won by a whisker as it was.

It wouldn’t take much for Barr to tip a couple of key states away from the GOP.

If McCain continues his about face on immigration reform, he’ll start driving people away faster than a dead rat in a salad bar. Yet he seems to be counting on making up for those losses by appealing to centrist Ds (and maybe the racists Dems that can’t stand pushing the button for the black man). If he pushes his ‘Uniter’ credentials, he risks reminding the GOP base exactly why they distrust/dislike him to begin with.

The next 5 month are going to be a tough tightrope for McCain to walk. Tilt too far to one hoping to pick up Democrats and drive more people to Barr. Tilt to far to the base to avoid bleeding supporters to the Libertarians and drive away the moderate Dems he seems to be courting.

Could Barr moving to McCain’s right force him to fight a two front war and lose? It’s possible.

I guess I should tone down the jokes about voting for Barr – that or just jump in his camp so I can be an early adopter. I suspect there may be a bunch of people moving that way. I may as well be the first… I’ll let you know what I decide sometime later.

I’m in the middle of a week long odyssey to Arkansas and New Orleans on behalf of the day job. On Friday night, I had dinner with some colleagues in a little restaurant called Doe’s Eat Place. The food and ambiance were good, but what got me thinking about politics weren’t the pictures of Clinton and company all over the walls – it was the conversation.

As we started talking about politics, one of the guys at the table (we’ll call him Dan*) made a joke that the California Supreme Court decision was going to end up costing him north of $10,000. We all asked what me meant and he proceeded to explain.

In 2004, Dan and his partner were watching coverage of the San Francisco Mayor allowing gay couples to marry. They saw images of the lines around the block waiting for marriage licenses, and decided to hop a flight the next morning to SF to marry. They had been together for 9 years at this point.

As they were making arrangements, Dan called his mom to tell her what they were doing. She immediately booked a flight to California – as did his brother, and father and various other family members. His brother was the first to arrive in San Francisco. Dan’s brother picked up his own brother-in-law and they headed to city hall to hold a place in line. As they stood there waiting, the couples around them asked how long they had been together. They joked, “Since 9 o’clock this morning.” After explaining, they chatted about the couples around them.

Dan arrived in San Fran and over the next few hours, family from all over arrived and began waiting with them. Due to a technical limitation, the city was only able to issue 400 marriage licenses per day. They soon ran out. Dan and his partner were still in line. They and the gathered family stood in line outside city hall for 28 hours, waiting for another opportunity the next day.

The next afternoon they made it in to city hall, got their license, were immediately married by some city official. After getting the license certified, they walked out the door and were showered by strangers who had gathered outside to shower the newly married couples exiting with rice and flowers.

Six months later, the court vacated his marriage.

While they still have their marriage certificate, it legally means nothing. The recent ruling did not reinstate those marriages conducted in 2004.

So now they’re planning to do it all again. In Dan’s words, they are doing so because it is important to them to have some permanent record that they meant more to each other than simply being co-signers on a mortgage.

So here’s what the GOP doesn’t get. For every member of the base opposed to gay marriage, there are independent, soft D and soft R voters who will hear stories like this and get it. They will listen to a friend recount their story of happiness and love. They will tell stories of joyous weddings that rival those any boy-girl combo.

When they hear these stories, these mainstream voters will understand that for two people in love, marriage means more than owning property or getting health benefits. They will see that heterosexuals do not have an exclusive on feelings. They’ll think about their own wedding day and realize what that moment meant to them. They will never again question the motives of two people in love wanting to have it recorded in the annals of our community histories.

Slowly, but surely, the tide will turn against the religious zealotry that makes the absurd argument that somehow, a gay marriage makes mine less meaningful. In the 1960s, 70s, and 80s, the GOP clung to racism to win elections, and has only recently apologized for the error of its past. It will, someday in the future, make a similar apology to those it fought so hard for preventing the recognition of relationships just as real and deep as their own.

* I’ve changed my colleague’s name because I did not ask his permission to retell his story. While I am sure he would not mind, I do not want to identify him absent that approval.

I’m not normally one to find amusement in the misfortune of others, but I found this hysterical.

You can only go around calling every single person you meet a racist for so long before one of them punches you in the face. I’m not positive that’s what happened, and other than complaining about headaches and pain, he’s been pretty tight lipped about it.

My understanding is the story begins with “I was outside a bar in New York City…”

Since no story with a happy ending starts that way, that should have been warning enough. But here’s the dialog that I assume preceded the thumping.

(camera pulls back to reveal Matt Stoller standing outside a bar. Thor, a large heavy set biker walks out the door behind him and taps Matt on the shoulder)

Thor: Did I hear you say something about me you skinny little shit?

Matt: Um, no sir.

Thor: You didn’t call me a racist?

Matt: Oh that? Well yeah, of course I did.

Thor: How do you figure I’m a racist you scrawny white puke?

Matt: Well gee, Mr. Biker, you’re drinking a light beer. Everyone knows that drinking light beer is a reflection of your negative views toward people of color. Only white supremacists drink light beer, just like only homophobes drink Zima.

Thor: You little punk, I’m drinking light beer because it’s on special. And not that it matters, but for your information, I’m half black.

Matt: You see. It’s a classic case of a self-loathing rac—-

(cut to scene of Stoller holding his eye and lying in a pool of his own urine as Thor walks back inside.)

Now I don’t have any witnesses that can confirm this is what happened, but it’s the scene that has been playing over and over in my head since I saw the picture.

Oh, and by the way, check out the number of comments on the post that say, “I used to get my ass beat by bullies in high school…” I get the sense that this is what happens to the kids of those hippies that thought teaching non-violence to kids was a good idea. We’re raising a whole generation of douchebags that won’t be able to take a beating without whining about it.

Sooner or later in life you’re going to get punched in the face – either physically or metaphorically. Take it like a man and move on.

Having dinner last night, discussion turned to the iPhone and the new version set for release in June. Chatter around the table turned to whether to upgrade (or purchase, for the people at the table without the device already). It seems everyone’s waiting a month before contemplating the big purchase.

I’m not, and I’ll tell you why. One word… Android

T-Mobile is releasing Android based phones this fall. Enabling development of a huge array of applications for the phone has the potential to create the iPhone killer. T-Mobile is talking internally about their new G3 platform and the phones in development as unlike any phone/network you’ve ever seen.

Now, I have to admit, the fact that the iPhone is only available through AT&T is the main factor in me refusing to purchase. However, even if the announcement coming out of Apple in June is the end of that exclusivity and the wider distribution of iPhone to other platforms, I’m still not buying.

Take the Google-driven Android platform, and combine that with their new FriendConnect service to unite all of their properties and other social nets through a giant open-source and open access distribution network, and the “gee-whiz” aspect of iPhone allowing you to browse YouTube and Facebook suddenly seem like an antiquated concept.

You’ll be able to truly interact from the mobile device. Tie your mobile’s built in GPS to location based social networks and you’ve got capabilities for connection on your phone that Apple just doesn’t match with the iPhone.

Add the fact that T-Mobile has been playing up wi-fi roaming via their phones, and suddenly your T-Mobile Andriod phone has is a wide open playground for development. The possibilities of this are endless.

In a nutshell, that’s why you’re unlikely to see me schlepping an iPhone any time soon.

A few weeks ago I launched a Twitter project called @MoviesIn120. The idea was to share movie reviews in 120 characters or less. I’ve been having a good time with that and it’s starting to build a good base of followers.

Today I decided to kick off @MusicIn120 or less for much the same reason – it’s a way to share good music, concert reviews, and artist info quickly.

As a huge fan of both music, I thought it would be a fun outlet to share some thoughts and hear from others about what they’re listening to. I hope you’ll check it out.

Finally, as a housekeeping note, the reason for “120″ is two-fold. First, I retweet reviews from others and the 20 characters between 120 and Twitter’s limit of 140 allow me space for a byline. Second, I’m in the process of developing a pseudo-SocNet at both MoviesIn120.com and MusicIn120.com that will allow people to upload two minute (or 120 second) video and audio clips to review (or recreate or reenact) the music/movie in question, search for and find short reviews for movie they’re interested in, or simply discuss the topics.